Competition between Emerging Wireless Network Technologies: Case Hspa vs. Wimax in Europe

The rapid evolution of wireless networking technologies has opened up new possibilities for wireless delivery of multimedia services and content. In addition to the standardization efforts of 3GPP and 3GPP2 on third generation mobile networks, new broadband wireless access technologies such as WLANs, WiMAX, Flash-OFDM, and DVB-H are emerging as alternative means to provide services to mobile users. These technologies are also offering possibilities for new players to enter the markets, inducing competition and possibly threatening the businesses of established players. In this paper, a conceptual framework is constructed for the analysis of emerging wireless technologies and their market potential. The framework is then applied to compare two different technology scenarios: an evolutionary 3GPP-based HSPA-scenario and a disruptive WiMAX-based scenario. Our framework emphasizes the importance of analyzing the complementary and substitutive nature of technologies, from four essential viewpoints. The end-user viewpoint aims to identify those use cases where the respective technologies can be used to complement and/or substitute existing technologies. The technology viewpoint focuses on analyzing and comparing the relative techno-economic characteristics of the technology alternatives. The value network viewpoint focuses on analyzing the capabilities of the industry players to deliver a " whole product " to the end-users, consisting of networks, terminals, and applications and content. Finally, the viewpoint of policy and regulation focuses on the external factors having an effect on both the capabilities of the technologies, as well as the strategies and decisions of players in the value network. Results from the case analysis show that HSPA and WiMAX are mainly substitutes rather than complements from both the end-user and technological performance point-of-view. The outcome of the technological battle between them might have an effect on the structure of the whole mobile industry.